Gold / silver miners, metals streamer / royalty companies companies / BTC miners plus MSTR
The 238 Day Bitcoin Consolidation is Over!! EP 1107
Paul Tudor Jones on Why Gold and Bitcoin Are Smart Investments
Updated the BTC count by 18300 coin this morning per the MicroStrategy news release on September 13th.
At GoldMinerPulse, our commitment in 2024 remains steadfast: we aim to redefine investment strategies in the mining sector through the application of cutting-edge machine learning. By harnessing the sophisticated capabilities of a Hidden Markov Model, we meticulously analyze and select a high-potential Nifty50 Explorer/Developer (ExDv) set of stocks. Our specialized focus encompasses an extensive dataset of ExDv stocks that have been active on the TSX/TSXv/CSE/NEX at any point from 2013 to the present. It's crucial to note that many of these companies may have traded only for a subset of this period, with changes in the dataset occurring due to factors such as acquisitions or late market entries. This careful consideration helps us mitigate selection bias, acknowledging that the set of companies trading today differs from those in previous years. Our analyses are fueled by a comprehensive dataset that includes end-of-day financial data and resource disclosures from Sedar/SedarPlus filings—encompassing financial statements, news releases, technical reports and the like. All data is normalized to reflect the filings made by the end of the trading day, with any filings made after the close of trading reported on the next trading day.
Our mission is crystal clear: to unlock significant alpha. The potential here is monumental—envision an 'Oracle' equipped with an unmatched ability to predict ExDv returns over any given time frame, transforming modest investments into extraordinary profits, all while adeptly navigating the inherent volatility of the mining sector. While we acknowledge that no technology can guarantee absolute perfection, our model is designed to mirror the Oracle's discernment, consistently identifying numerous top performers and steering clear of many underperformers to create considerable alpha across various time periods, achieving returns that surpass those of spot gold.
Our goal is to achieve absolute alpha across multiple time periods. The Oracle's best performance saw very few negative returns (just 2 out of 30 time periods), significantly outperforming spot gold. On the other hand, the Oracle's worst performance had only one positive return in 30 time periods. However, the potential for alpha within ExDv is undeniable, and our Hidden Markov Model ML is being meticulously developed to seize a portion of this potential alpha.
As we work with ChatGPT to refine our models and approach our internal release in Q2 2024, we're also making strides in resolving SedarPlus tracking issues to ensure seamless integration with daily filings. This meticulous preparation underscores our dedication to reliability and precision in our investment insights.
Our exploration into MicroStrategy and Bitcoin tracking was more than a technical exercise; it demonstrated our capability to automate complex analyses, now producing hourly updates through our fully automated system. This capability is not an end but a foundation for our ongoing innovation in financial technology.
As we stand on the brink of redefining investment strategies in the mining sector, we invite you to join us in this exciting journey. Stay tuned for updates as we pass our rigorous internal quality checks and continue to push the boundaries of what's possible in machine learning and investment strategy.
Your partnership and trust inspire us to keep innovating, exploring, and delivering the insights that drive success in the dynamic world of mining investments.
June 20, 2024: MicroStrategy acquired additional 11,931 BTC to now hold 226,331 BTC. The char update was made mid day and shows as the 15% drop in MSTR premium. In my opinion the trend over past weeks is much more important than the absolute value -- as time becomes available, I will work on a version 2.0 of MSTR premium tracing but currently do not have the time.
March 11, 2024 before market open: "MicroStrategy Acquires Additional 12,000 BTC and now holds 205,000 BTC". MBETA charts update 15:39 - information was on X 7 hours earlier (as a result most chart data point for March 11 market open time are distored. The final two points have been adjusted for the 12,000 BTC add.
Please see MBETA long term view for a view of MSTR premium and discount over the data set collected.
The goldMinerPulse team, in collaboration with ChatGPT, is proud to present version 1.1 of the MicroStrategy BTC Premium/Discount model, now known as the MicroStrategy-BTC Estimation Tracker and Analytics (MBETA). MBETA provides an estimation of the premium or discount of the MSTR spot price, considering the current issued MSTR shares, BTC holdings, and the prevailing BTC spot price.
Check this page for hourly updates. You may see a case to view MSTR as part of Quant hedge on BTC price. The swings between premium and discounts in the MBETA model do tend to follow the BTC price moves - an idea we plan to explore with ChatGPT in the future as we have free time.
A list of excellent X accounts and sites are listed below for montoring the daily and intra day BTC news events.
@BTC_archive
@coryKlippsten
@saylor
@SimplyBitcoin
@SimplyBitcoinTV
@Swan
@Excellion
@BitwiseInvest
Also check out the website CPA Practice Advisor.
Given the marketing prowess of BlackRock and Fidelity, its reasonable to expect BTC Spot ETF coin holdings to surpass those of MSTR.
Given the differences in management fees between GBTC and the new spot ETFs vs the management fees and long term capital gains, it is unclear if an when a new spot BTC ETF will hold more BTC than GBTC.
While the MBETA model needs refinement in terms of the exact number of outstanding shares, the direction of movement is clear. The current configuration effectively shows relative premium/discount movements and has recently been a leading or confirming indicator for BTC price movements.
Quant Traders seek long and short plays to lock in risk-free returns. Our analysis suggests that MSTR is being used for one side of a quant play: the short side when BTC price is falling and the long side when its rising. This conclusion is based on recent trading evidence and is not investment advice. The pattern may change as spot BTC ETFs mature.
BTC is a new asset class and likely is the hardest asset class since gold. Gold versus BTC is left as an exercise for the curious - start with YouTube.
Stay updated with hourly MBETA chart updates on this page for insights into BTC price movements and trading strategies.
Please see the MBETA for more charts.
Updates are temporaily disable - site maintenance scripts are being upgraded to Python.
Daily updates for trends are on the trends page.
